Traders on Polymarket now favor Flávio Bolsonaro to win Brazil's presidency, pricing him at 58% to Lula da Silva's 42% in a sharp reversal from just weeks ago, when Lula was above 60%.

The lines crossed for the first time around September 8-9, then broke decisively toward Flávio. He's running with his father Jair Bolsonaro's backing after Jair's coup-plot conviction and arrest last year. A September 10 poll had the two essentially tied in a runoff. Volume on the market has topped $151M. Election day is October 4.

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