US stocks are well positioned for inflation.

In 2025, the S&P 500 posted a +14.76% inflation-adjusted return, with inflation running at +2.70% for the year. This followed real returns of +21.47% in 2024 and +22.11% in 2023. Over the last 20 years, the largest real return was in 2013, at +30.42%, when inflation was just +1.50%. During this period, the S&P 500 failed to beat inflation in only 4 years: 2008, 2011, 2018, and 2022. Meanwhile, S&P 500 companies are projected to report +23% YoY earnings growth in Q3, supporting continued positive real returns even as inflation remains above 3%. Stocks have historically been one of the best hedges against inflation.

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