Wheat prices are surging.

US wheat futures jumped +6.4% on Wednesday and +1.3% on Thursday, to $7.58 per bushel, the highest level since July 2023. Wheat prices have risen +19% so far this month, and are up +50% since the start of 2026. This comes amid growing concerns about further disruptions to grain-export ports and terminals along Ukraine's and Russia's Black Sea coast. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports, while also supplying significant amounts of global barley, corn, and sunflower oil exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine's agricultural exports in the 2026-27 season are now expected to be 29.6 million tons, or -54% lower than the previous estimate of 6

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